THE WATCH ENGINE IS FREEZING CROSS-SECTOR EVIDENCE FOR ITS FIRST THESIS
SCALES://WATCH/IRAN-HORMUZ READ-ONLY
ACTIVE BLACK-SWAN WATCH
Iran / Strait of Hormuz
Tracks conflict-driven disruption across Gulf energy flows, maritime corridors, strategic industrial inputs and defense supply chains.
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BROAD MARKET TRANSMISSION
EVIDENCE-BOUND RWA IMPACTS PENDING
SUPPORTED INSTRUMENT EXPOSUREOnly registry-backed instruments appear here.NVDANVIDIA - Robinhood Token
TIER / SECTORRISK30D TRACECOUNCIL
T1EnergyDirect exposure to Hormuz oil, refined-product and LNG flows.—N/A · 55% COV failedT1SemiconductorsHelium, LNG, aluminum, power and expedited-freight transmission.—N/A · 55% COV failedT2Aerospace & DefenseDefense demand, replenishment and production bottlenecks.—N/A · 55% COV failedT2Critical MineralsEnergy and maritime costs transmit into strategic materials.—N/A · 55% COV failedT2Infrastructure & Real EstatePorts, pipelines, terminals, grids and regional infrastructure.—N/A · 55% COV failedT2Transportation & LogisticsDirect tanker, freight, rerouting and insurance exposure.—N/A · 55% COV failedCL=F90.48+28.6%44 STRESS
SMH586.91-5.7%61 STRESS
XAR264.3-4.0%51 STRESS
HG=F6.47+8.8%15 STRESS
^TNX4.66+3.6%5 STRESS
BZ=F92.95+26.1%46 STRESS
ORIGINHORMUZmaritime chokepoint
01Oil & LNGTanker traffic, export terminals, refineries and Gulf productionenergy
02Helium & materialsFab gases, aluminum, energy-intensive production and inventorysemiconductors / critical minerals
03Freight & insuranceRerouting, war-risk premiums, port access and airspacetransportation logistics / infrastructure real estate
04Defense productionMunitions, drones, missiles, procurement and industrial capacityaerospace defense
NO MATCHING WATCH SIGNALS